JOAS Projections

Projected Super Bowl Champion

wins it all in 12.2% of 2,500 simulated seasons

Projected Division Records

AFC East

Team	Proj W–L	Win Div	Playoffs
BUF Buffalo Bills	10.0–7.0	51.6%	71.4%
NE New England Patriots	9.9–7.1	46.9%	69.8%
MIA Miami Dolphins	5.3–11.7	1.0%	2.1%
NYJ New York Jets	5.2–11.8	0.6%	1.6%

AFC North

Team	Proj W–L	Win Div	Playoffs
BAL Baltimore Ravens	10.2–6.8	59.8%	75.6%
CIN Cincinnati Bengals	8.9–8.1	26.4%	50.2%
PIT Pittsburgh Steelers	7.8–9.2	11.2%	24.7%
CLE Cleveland Browns	6.1–10.9	2.7%	5.2%

AFC South

Team	Proj W–L	Win Div	Playoffs
HOU Houston Texans	9.7–7.3	39.6%	61.2%
JAC Jacksonville Jaguars	9.5–7.5	36.2%	58.6%
IND Indianapolis Colts	8.6–8.4	22.4%	43.0%
TEN Tennessee Titans	5.9–11.1	1.7%	4.6%

AFC West

Team	Proj W–L	Win Div	Playoffs
KC Kansas City Chiefs	10.7–6.3	41.9%	80.8%
LAC Los Angeles Chargers	10.7–6.3	38.3%	78.9%
DEN Denver Broncos	9.2–7.8	15.5%	50.8%
LV Las Vegas Raiders	7.9–9.1	4.2%	21.7%

NFC East

Team	Proj W–L	Win Div	Playoffs
PHI Philadelphia Eagles	10.4–6.6	54.0%	75.4%
DAL Dallas Cowboys	8.8–8.2	21.2%	47.8%
NYG New York Giants	8.8–8.2	21.9%	45.8%
WAS Washington Commanders	6.6–10.4	2.9%	10.6%

NFC North

Team	Proj W–L	Win Div	Playoffs
DET Detroit Lions	10.3–6.7	44.4%	76.4%
GB Green Bay Packers	10.0–7.0	34.1%	68.8%
MIN Minnesota Vikings	9.0–8.0	14.2%	42.1%
CHI Chicago Bears	8.0–9.0	7.3%	26.1%

NFC South

Team	Proj W–L	Win Div	Playoffs
TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.2–8.8	39.4%	44.2%
NO New Orleans Saints	7.7–9.3	21.4%	26.4%
ATL Atlanta Falcons	7.5–9.5	22.4%	27.1%
CAR Carolina Panthers	7.1–9.9	16.8%	20.9%

NFC West

Team	Proj W–L	Win Div	Playoffs
LAR Los Angeles Rams	10.6–6.4	53.9%	79.8%
SF San Francisco 49ers	9.3–7.7	27.2%	58.7%
SEA Seattle Seahawks	9.2–7.8	18.7%	48.8%
ARI Arizona Cardinals	4.7–12.3	0.2%	1.1%

Projected Playoff Seeding

AFC

Seed	Team	Proj W–L	#1 Seed	Avg Seed	Win Conf
1	KC Kansas City Chiefs · div	10.7–6.3	19.2%	3.8	18.3%
2	LAC Los Angeles Chargers · div	10.7–6.3	17.6%	3.9	19.5%
3	BAL Baltimore Ravens · div	10.2–6.8	13.6%	3.3	10.3%
4	BUF Buffalo Bills · div	10.0–7.0	11.0%	3.5	13.2%
5	NE New England Patriots · WC	9.9–7.1	9.1%	3.8	10.1%
6	HOU Houston Texans · WC	9.7–7.3	8.0%	3.9	8.0%
7	JAC Jacksonville Jaguars · WC	9.5–7.5	6.1%	4	6.4%

NFC

Seed	Team	Proj W–L	#1 Seed	Avg Seed	Win Conf
1	LAR Los Angeles Rams · div	10.6–6.4	21.3%	3.3	22.6%
2	DET Detroit Lions · div	10.3–6.7	17.1%	3.6	12.4%
3	PHI Philadelphia Eagles · div	10.4–6.6	16.7%	3.3	14.8%
4	GB Green Bay Packers · div	10.0–7.0	11.6%	4	11.5%
5	SF San Francisco 49ers · WC	9.3–7.7	8.1%	4.2	8.7%
6	SEA Seattle Seahawks · WC	9.2–7.8	4.9%	4.6	6.8%
7	DAL Dallas Cowboys · WC	8.8–8.2	5.1%	4.4	5.7%

Super Bowl Odds

#	Team	Proj W–L	Make Playoffs	Win Conference	Win Super Bowl
1	LAR Los Angeles Rams	10.6–6.4	79.8%	22.6%	12.2%
2	LAC Los Angeles Chargers	10.7–6.3	78.9%	19.5%	11.2%
3	KC Kansas City Chiefs	10.7–6.3	80.8%	18.3%	9.8%
4	PHI Philadelphia Eagles	10.4–6.6	75.4%	14.8%	7.7%
5	BUF Buffalo Bills	10.0–7.0	71.4%	13.2%	7.2%
6	DET Detroit Lions	10.3–6.7	76.4%	12.4%	6.1%
7	BAL Baltimore Ravens	10.2–6.8	75.6%	10.3%	5.7%
8	NE New England Patriots	9.9–7.1	69.8%	10.1%	5.5%
9	GB Green Bay Packers	10.0–7.0	68.8%	11.5%	4.9%
10	HOU Houston Texans	9.7–7.3	61.2%	8.0%	4.6%
11	SF San Francisco 49ers	9.3–7.7	58.7%	8.7%	3.6%
12	DEN Denver Broncos	9.2–7.8	50.8%	6.0%	3.3%
13	SEA Seattle Seahawks	9.2–7.8	48.8%	6.8%	3.1%
14	JAC Jacksonville Jaguars	9.5–7.5	58.6%	6.4%	3.0%

2,500 full-season simulations of the real 2026 schedule using JOAS projected scoring rates, defense-vs-position factors (plus any admin defense adjustments), and home/road effects. Seeding follows NFL rules — 4 division winners + 3 wild cards, #1 seed bye, re-seeded bracket, neutral-site Super Bowl. Records are expected wins.